2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 70-74 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Canada

1. 34,201 of 34,201 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 39,782 of 39,782 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 5,581 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 45,238 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 34,201 of 1,879,942 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Canada died from All Causes.

34,201 ÷ 1,879,942 = 0.01819 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 347,966 deaths from All Causes among 16,443,556 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

347,966 ÷ 16,443,556 = 0.02116 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,879,942 X 0.02116 = 39,782 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

34,201 – 39,782 = -5,581

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

34,201 ÷ 39,782 = 0.8593

This reveals 5,581 lives saved and is 85.93% of what we expected (a decrease of 14%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

199,247 ÷ 11,289,715 = 0.01765 (5-yr CDR)

1,879,942(2022 pop) X 0.01765 = 33,178 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

34,201 – 33,178 = 1,023 or 1,023 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

34,201 ÷ 33,178 = 1.0302 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

13,169,657 X 0.02116 = 278,686 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

233448 – 278,686 = -45,238 or 45,238 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

233,448 ÷ 278,686 = 0.8373 or a decrease of 16%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.