2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 75-79 | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 75-79 in Manitoba

1. 590 of 590 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 687 of 687 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 97 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 461 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 590 of 22,658 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

590 ÷ 22,658 = 0.02604 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 7,717 deaths from All Causes among 254,473 elderly women aged 75-79 living in Manitoba in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

7,717 ÷ 254,473 = 0.03033 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

22,658 X 0.03033 = 687 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

590 – 687 = -97

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

590 ÷ 687 = 0.8584

This reveals 97 lives saved and is 85.84% of what we expected (a decrease of 14%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,672 ÷ 133,094 = 0.02759 (5-yr CDR)

22,658(2022 pop) X 0.02759 = 625 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

590 – 625 = -35 or 35 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

590 ÷ 625 = 0.9435 or a decrease of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

155,752 X 0.03033 = 4,723 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4262 – 4,723 = -461 or 461 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,262 ÷ 4,723 = 0.9020 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.