2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 90+ | Manitoba, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 90+ in Manitoba

1. 912 of 912 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 43% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,590 of 1,590 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 678 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 6,132 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 43% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 912 of 3,694 elderly men aged 90+ living in Manitoba died from All Causes.

912 ÷ 3,694 = 0.24689 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 14,349 deaths from All Causes among 33,332 elderly men aged 90+ living in Manitoba in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

14,349 ÷ 33,332 = 0.43049 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

3,694 X 0.43049 = 1,590 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

912 – 1,590 = -678

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

912 ÷ 1,590 = 0.5735

This reveals 678 lives saved and is 57.35% of what we expected (a decrease of 43%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,067 ÷ 24,439 = 0.20733 (5-yr CDR)

3,694(2022 pop) X 0.20733 = 766 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

912 – 766 = 146 or 146 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

912 ÷ 766 = 1.1907 or an increase of 19%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Manitoba in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

28,133 X 0.43049 = 12,111 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5979 – 12,111 = -6,132 or 6,132 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,979 ÷ 12,111 = 0.4937 or a decrease of 51%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Manitoba in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.