2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 75-79 | New Brunswick, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 75-79 in New Brunswick

1. 433 of 433 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 26% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 584 of 584 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 151 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 723 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 26% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 433 of 18,415 elderly women aged 75-79 living in New Brunswick died from All Causes.

433 ÷ 18,415 = 0.02351 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,366 deaths from All Causes among 169,256 elderly women aged 75-79 living in New Brunswick in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,366 ÷ 169,256 = 0.03170 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

18,415 X 0.03170 = 584 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

433 – 584 = -151

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

433 ÷ 584 = 0.7414

This reveals 151 lives saved and is 74.14% of what we expected (a decrease of 26%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,700 ÷ 103,212 = 0.02616 (5-yr CDR)

18,415(2022 pop) X 0.02616 = 482 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

433 – 482 = -49 or 49 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

433 ÷ 482 = 0.8985 or a decrease of 10%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

121,627 X 0.03170 = 3,856 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3133 – 3,856 = -723 or 723 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,133 ÷ 3,856 = 0.8122 or a decrease of 19%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in New Brunswick in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.