2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 80-84 | New Brunswick, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80-84 in New Brunswick

1. 522 of 522 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 626 of 626 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 104 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 339 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 522 of 11,789 elderly women aged 80-84 living in New Brunswick died from All Causes.

522 ÷ 11,789 = 0.04428 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 7,222 deaths from All Causes among 136,017 elderly women aged 80-84 living in New Brunswick in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

7,222 ÷ 136,017 = 0.05310 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

11,789 X 0.05310 = 626 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

522 – 626 = -104

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

522 ÷ 626 = 0.8338

This reveals 104 lives saved and is 83.38% of what we expected (a decrease of 17%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,634 ÷ 72,870 = 0.04987 (5-yr CDR)

11,789(2022 pop) X 0.04987 = 588 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

522 – 588 = -66 or 66 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

522 ÷ 588 = 0.8877 or a decrease of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

84,659 X 0.05310 = 4,495 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4156 – 4,495 = -339 or 339 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,156 ÷ 4,495 = 0.9244 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in New Brunswick in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.