2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 70-74 | Prince Edward Island, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 70-74 in Prince Edward Island

1. 77 of 77 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.99% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 15% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 90 of 90 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 13 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 105 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 15% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 77 of 4,861 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Prince Edward Island died from All Causes.

77 ÷ 4,861 = 0.01584 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 739 deaths from All Causes among 39,695 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Prince Edward Island in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

739 ÷ 39,695 = 0.01862 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

4,861 X 0.01862 = 90 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

77 – 90 = -13

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

77 ÷ 90 = 0.8504

This reveals 13 lives saved and is 85.04% of what we expected (a decrease of 15%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Prince Edward Island in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

442 ÷ 28,664 = 0.01542 (5-yr CDR)

4,861(2022 pop) X 0.01542 = 75 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

77 – 75 = 2 or 2 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

77 ÷ 75 = 1.0266 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Prince Edward Island in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

33,525 X 0.01862 = 624 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

519 – 624 = -105 or 105 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

519 ÷ 624 = 0.8311 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Prince Edward Island in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.