2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 55-59 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 55-59 in Quebec

1. 1,059 of 1,059 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 19% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,298 of 1,298 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 239 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,693 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 19% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,059 of 296,322 women aged 55-59 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

1,059 ÷ 296,322 = 0.00357 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 17,380 deaths from All Causes among 3,966,248 women aged 55-59 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

17,380 ÷ 3,966,248 = 0.00438 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

296,322 X 0.00438 = 1,298 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,059 – 1,298 = -239

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,059 ÷ 1,298 = 0.8137

This reveals 239 lives saved and is 81.37% of what we expected (a decrease of 19%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

8,260 ÷ 2,216,800 = 0.00373 (5-yr CDR)

296,322(2022 pop) X 0.00373 = 1,104 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,059 – 1,104 = -45 or 45 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,059 ÷ 1,104 = 0.9566 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,513,122 X 0.00438 = 11,012 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9319 – 11,012 = -1,693 or 1,693 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,319 ÷ 11,012 = 0.8443 or a decrease of 16%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.