2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 55-59 | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 55-59 in Alabama

1. 1,449 of 1,449 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 19% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,220 of 1,220 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 229 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,406 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 19% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,449 of 166,811 women aged 55-59 living in Alabama died from All Causes.

1,449 ÷ 166,811 = 0.00869 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 16,536 deaths from All Causes among 2,261,062 women aged 55-59 living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

16,536 ÷ 2,261,062 = 0.00731 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

166,811 X 0.00731 = 1,220 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,449 – 1,220 = 229

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,449 ÷ 1,220 = 1.1861

This reveals 229 lives lost and is 118.61% of what we expected (an increase of 19%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,127 ÷ 1,223,758 = 0.00828 (5-yr CDR)

166,811(2022 pop) X 0.00828 = 1,380 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,449 – 1,380 = 69 or 69 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,449 ÷ 1,380 = 1.0484 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,390,569 X 0.00731 = 10,170 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

11576 – 10,170 = 1,406 or 1,406 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

11,576 ÷ 10,170 = 1.1367 or an increase of 14%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.