2022 Deaths – All Causes – Baby Boy – Under 1 | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for baby boys in their first year of life in Alabama

1. 208 of 208 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 30% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 297 of 297 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 89 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 360 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 30% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many baby boys in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 208 of 29,489 baby boys in their first year of life living in Alabama died from All Causes.

208 ÷ 29,489 = 0.00705 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 4,625 deaths from All Causes among 458,948 baby boys in their first year of life living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,625 ÷ 458,948 = 0.01008 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

29,489 X 0.01008 = 297 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

208 – 297 = -89

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

208 ÷ 297 = 0.6992

This reveals 89 lives saved and is 69.92% of what we expected (a decrease of 30%) in deaths from All Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,789 ÷ 204,424 = 0.00875 (5-yr CDR)

29,489(2022 pop) X 0.00875 = 258 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

208 – 258 = -50 or 50 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

208 ÷ 258 = 0.8051 or a decrease of 19%

for deaths from All Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

233,913 X 0.01008 = 2,357 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1997 – 2,357 = -360 or 360 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,997 ÷ 2,357 = 0.8463 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from All Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.