2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 40-44 | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 40-44 in Alabama

1. 852 of 852 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 41% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 603 of 603 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 249 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,011 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 41% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 852 of 151,745 men aged 40-44 living in Alabama died from All Causes.

852 ÷ 151,745 = 0.00561 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 9,554 deaths from All Causes among 2,405,129 men aged 40-44 living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

9,554 ÷ 2,405,129 = 0.00397 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

151,745 X 0.00397 = 603 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

852 – 603 = 249

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

852 ÷ 603 = 1.4099

This reveals 249 lives lost and is 140.99% of what we expected (an increase of 41%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,742 ÷ 1,002,018 = 0.00473 (5-yr CDR)

151,745(2022 pop) X 0.00473 = 718 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

852 – 718 = 134 or 134 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

852 ÷ 718 = 1.1839 or an increase of 18%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,153,763 X 0.00397 = 4,583 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5594 – 4,583 = 1,011 or 1,011 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,594 ÷ 4,583 = 1.2175 or an increase of 22%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.