2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 70-74 | Alabama, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Alabama

1. 4,248 of 4,248 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 0% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,232 of 4,232 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 16 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 622 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 0% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,248 of 110,603 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Alabama died from All Causes.

4,248 ÷ 110,603 = 0.03841 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 40,229 deaths from All Causes among 1,051,367 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Alabama in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

40,229 ÷ 1,051,367 = 0.03826 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

110,603 X 0.03826 = 4,232 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,248 – 4,232 = 16

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,248 ÷ 4,232 = 1.0035

This reveals 16 lives lost and is 100.35% of what we expected (an increase of 0%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

25,835 ÷ 691,870 = 0.03734 (5-yr CDR)

110,603(2022 pop) X 0.03734 = 4,130 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,248 – 4,130 = 118 or 118 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,248 ÷ 4,130 = 1.0283 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Alabama in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

802,473 X 0.03826 = 30,705 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

30083 – 30,705 = -622 or 622 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

30,083 ÷ 30,705 = 0.9795 or a decrease of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Alabama in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.