2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 45-49 | Alaska, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 45-49 in Alaska

1. 75 of 75 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.99% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 45% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 52 of 52 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 23 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 108 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 45% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 75 of 18,900 women aged 45-49 living in Alaska died from All Causes.

75 ÷ 18,900 = 0.00397 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,071 deaths from All Causes among 391,739 women aged 45-49 living in Alaska in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,071 ÷ 391,739 = 0.00273 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

18,900 X 0.00273 = 52 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

75 – 52 = 23

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

75 ÷ 52 = 1.4462

This reveals 23 lives lost and is 144.62% of what we expected (an increase of 45%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in Alaska in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

477 ÷ 143,667 = 0.00332 (5-yr CDR)

18,900(2022 pop) X 0.00332 = 63 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

75 – 63 = 12 or 12 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

75 ÷ 63 = 1.1916 or an increase of 19%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in Alaska in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

162,567 X 0.00273 = 444 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

552 – 444 = 108 or 108 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

552 ÷ 444 = 1.2375 or an increase of 24%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in Alaska in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.