2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 60-64 | Alaska, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 60-64 in Alaska

1. 346 of 346 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 27% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 272 of 272 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 74 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 249 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 27% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 346 of 23,204 men aged 60-64 living in Alaska died from All Causes.

346 ÷ 23,204 = 0.01491 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,786 deaths from All Causes among 238,046 men aged 60-64 living in Alaska in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,786 ÷ 238,046 = 0.01170 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

23,204 X 0.01170 = 272 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

346 – 272 = 74

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

346 ÷ 272 = 1.2730

This reveals 74 lives lost and is 127.30% of what we expected (an increase of 27%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Alaska in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,057 ÷ 160,851 = 0.01279 (5-yr CDR)

23,204(2022 pop) X 0.01279 = 297 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

346 – 297 = 49 or 49 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

346 ÷ 297 = 1.1651 or an increase of 17%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Alaska in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

184,055 X 0.01170 = 2,154 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2403 – 2,154 = 249 or 249 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,403 ÷ 2,154 = 1.1146 or an increase of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Alaska in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.