2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 80+ | Alaska, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80+ in Alaska

1. 691 of 691 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 725 of 725 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 34 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 129 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 691 of 4,305 elderly men aged 80+ living in Alaska died from All Causes.

691 ÷ 4,305 = 0.16051 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,807 deaths from All Causes among 34,502 elderly men aged 80+ living in Alaska in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,807 ÷ 34,502 = 0.16831 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

4,305 X 0.16831 = 725 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

691 – 725 = -34

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

691 ÷ 725 = 0.9536

This reveals 34 lives saved and is 95.36% of what we expected (a decrease of 5%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Alaska in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,294 ÷ 24,549 = 0.17492 (5-yr CDR)

4,305(2022 pop) X 0.17492 = 753 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

691 – 753 = -62 or 62 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

691 ÷ 753 = 0.9176 or a decrease of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Alaska in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

28,854 X 0.16831 = 4,856 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4985 – 4,856 = 129 or 129 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,985 ÷ 4,856 = 1.0264 or an increase of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Alaska in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.