2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 40-44 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 40-44 in Arizona

1. 487 of 487 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 27% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 380 of 380 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 107 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 251 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 27% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 487 of 221,956 women aged 40-44 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

487 ÷ 221,956 = 0.00219 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,206 deaths from All Causes among 3,038,262 women aged 40-44 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,206 ÷ 3,038,262 = 0.00171 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

221,956 X 0.00171 = 380 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

487 – 380 = 107

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

487 ÷ 380 = 1.2731

This reveals 107 lives lost and is 127.31% of what we expected (an increase of 27%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,683 ÷ 1,481,393 = 0.00181 (5-yr CDR)

221,956(2022 pop) X 0.00181 = 402 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

487 – 402 = 85 or 85 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

487 ÷ 402 = 1.2048 or an increase of 20%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,703,349 X 0.00171 = 2,919 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3170 – 2,919 = 251 or 251 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,170 ÷ 2,919 = 1.0798 or an increase of 8%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.