2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – All Ages | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women of all ages in Arizona

1. 33,529 of 33,529 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 27% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 26,279 of 26,279 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 7,250 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 31,538 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 27% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women of all ages were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 33,529 of 3,592,259 women of all ages living in Arizona died from All Causes.

33,529 ÷ 3,592,259 = 0.00933 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 325,636 deaths from All Causes among 44,513,860 women of all ages living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

325,636 ÷ 44,513,860 = 0.00732 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

3,592,259 X 0.00732 = 26,279 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

33,529 – 26,279 = 7,250

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

33,529 ÷ 26,279 = 1.2742

This reveals 7,250 lives lost and is 127.42% of what we expected (an increase of 27%) in deaths from All Causes among women of all ages living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

203,670 ÷ 24,521,296 = 0.00831 (5-yr CDR)

3,592,259(2022 pop) X 0.00831 = 29,837 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

33,529 – 29,837 = 3,692 or 3,692 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

33,529 ÷ 29,837 = 1.1224 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among women of all ages living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

28,113,555 X 0.00732 = 205,661 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

237199 – 205,661 = 31,538 or 31,538 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

237,199 ÷ 205,661 = 1.1518 or an increase of 15%

in deaths from All Causes among women of all ages living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.