2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 15-19 | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teen-aged girls aged 15-19 in Arkansas

1. 42 of 42 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.98% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 16% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 49 of 49 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 7 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 56 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 16% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teen-aged girls aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 42 of 99,097 teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

42 ÷ 99,097 = 0.00042 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 713 deaths from All Causes among 1,447,446 teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

713 ÷ 1,447,446 = 0.00049 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

99,097 X 0.00049 = 49 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

42 – 49 = -7

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

42 ÷ 49 = 0.8433

This reveals 7 lives saved and is 84.33% of what we expected (a decrease of 16%) in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

285 ÷ 677,881 = 0.00042 (5-yr CDR)

99,097(2022 pop) X 0.00042 = 42 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

42 – 42 = 0 or 0 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

42 ÷ 42 = 0.9847 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

776,978 X 0.00049 = 383 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

327 – 383 = -56 or 56 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

327 ÷ 383 = 0.8374 or a decrease of 16%

in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.