2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – All Ages | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women of all ages in Arkansas

1. 17,966 of 17,966 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 18% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 15,183 of 15,183 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2,783 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 12,833 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 18% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women of all ages were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 17,966 of 1,502,724 women of all ages living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

17,966 ÷ 1,502,724 = 0.01196 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 213,729 deaths from All Causes among 21,153,321 women of all ages living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

213,729 ÷ 21,153,321 = 0.01010 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,502,724 X 0.01010 = 15,183 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

17,966 – 15,183 = 2,783

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

17,966 ÷ 15,183 = 1.1821

This reveals 2,783 lives lost and is 118.21% of what we expected (an increase of 18%) in deaths from All Causes among women of all ages living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

114,655 ÷ 10,352,981 = 0.01107 (5-yr CDR)

1,502,724(2022 pop) X 0.01107 = 16,642 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

17,966 – 16,642 = 1,324 or 1,324 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

17,966 ÷ 16,642 = 1.0786 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among women of all ages living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

11,855,705 X 0.01010 = 119,788 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

132621 – 119,788 = 12,833 or 12,833 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

132,621 ÷ 119,788 = 1.1060 or an increase of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among women of all ages living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.