2022 Deaths – All Causes – Pre-school Boy – 1-4 | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for pre-school boys aged 1-4 in Arkansas

1. 40 of 40 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.98% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 11% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 35 of 35 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 5 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 50 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 11% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many pre-school boys aged 1-4 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 40 of 74,008 pre-school boys aged 1-4 living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

40 ÷ 74,008 = 0.00054 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 559 deaths from All Causes among 1,169,699 pre-school boys aged 1-4 living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

559 ÷ 1,169,699 = 0.00048 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

74,008 X 0.00048 = 35 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

40 – 35 = 5

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

40 ÷ 35 = 1.1078

This reveals 5 lives lost and is 110.78% of what we expected (an increase of 11%) in deaths from All Causes among pre-school boys aged 1-4 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

206 ÷ 544,518 = 0.00038 (5-yr CDR)

74,008(2022 pop) X 0.00038 = 28 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

40 – 28 = 12 or 12 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

40 ÷ 28 = 1.3919 or an increase of 39%

for deaths from All Causes among pre-school boys aged 1-4 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

618,526 X 0.00048 = 296 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

246 – 296 = -50 or 50 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

246 ÷ 296 = 0.8152 or a decrease of 18%

in deaths from All Causes among pre-school boys aged 1-4 living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.