2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 65-69 | Arkansas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in Arkansas

1. 2,253 of 2,253 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,985 of 1,985 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 268 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 996 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,253 of 81,513 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Arkansas died from All Causes.

2,253 ÷ 81,513 = 0.02764 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 21,347 deaths from All Causes among 876,437 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Arkansas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

21,347 ÷ 876,437 = 0.02436 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

81,513 X 0.02436 = 1,985 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,253 – 1,985 = 268

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,253 ÷ 1,985 = 1.1343

This reveals 268 lives lost and is 113.43% of what we expected (an increase of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

13,877 ÷ 539,826 = 0.02571 (5-yr CDR)

81,513(2022 pop) X 0.02571 = 2,095 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,253 – 2,095 = 158 or 158 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,253 ÷ 2,095 = 1.0748 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Arkansas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

621,339 X 0.02436 = 15,134 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

16130 – 15,134 = 996 or 996 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

16,130 ÷ 15,134 = 1.0654 or an increase of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Arkansas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.