2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Baby – Under 1 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for babies in their first year of life in California

1. 916 of 1,697 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 53.98% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,035 of 2,212 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 119 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 515 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,220 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 4,335 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many babies in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 916 of 425,149 babies in their first year of life living in California died from Unknown Causes.

916 ÷ 425,149 = 0.00215 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 18,698 deaths from Unknown Causes among 7,677,819 babies in their first year of life living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

18,698 ÷ 7,677,819 = 0.00244 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

425,149 X 0.00244 = 1,035 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

916 – 1,035 = -119

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

916 ÷ 1,035 = 0.8811

This reveals 119 lives saved and is 88.11% of what we expected (a decrease of 12%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,932 ÷ 3,298,281 = 0.00210 (5-yr CDR)

425,149(2022 pop) X 0.00210 = 894 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

916 – 894 = 22 or 22 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

916 ÷ 894 = 1.0203 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,723,430 X 0.00244 = 9,068 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7848 – 9,068 = -1,220 or 1,220 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,848 ÷ 9,068 = 0.8619 or a decrease of 14%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.