2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 40-44 | Georgia, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 40-44 in Georgia

1. 1,389 of 1,389 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 30% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,067 of 1,067 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 322 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 776 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 30% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,389 of 348,884 men aged 40-44 living in Georgia died from All Causes.

1,389 ÷ 348,884 = 0.00398 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 15,804 deaths from All Causes among 5,165,591 men aged 40-44 living in Georgia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

15,804 ÷ 5,165,591 = 0.00306 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

348,884 X 0.00306 = 1,067 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,389 – 1,067 = 322

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,389 ÷ 1,067 = 1.2971

This reveals 322 lives lost and is 129.71% of what we expected (an increase of 30%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Georgia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

7,495 ÷ 2,301,151 = 0.00326 (5-yr CDR)

348,884(2022 pop) X 0.00326 = 1,136 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,389 – 1,136 = 253 or 253 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,389 ÷ 1,136 = 1.2186 or an increase of 22%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Georgia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,650,035 X 0.00306 = 8,108 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

8884 – 8,108 = 776 or 776 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

8,884 ÷ 8,108 = 1.0922 or an increase of 9%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Georgia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.