2022 Deaths – All Causes – Baby Girl – Under 1 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for baby girls in their first year of life in Illinois

1. 323 of 323 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 25% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 428 of 428 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 105 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 826 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 25% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many baby girls in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 323 of 64,105 baby girls in their first year of life living in Illinois died from All Causes.

323 ÷ 64,105 = 0.00504 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 8,255 deaths from All Causes among 1,237,102 baby girls in their first year of life living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

8,255 ÷ 1,237,102 = 0.00667 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

64,105 X 0.00667 = 428 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

323 – 428 = -105

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

323 ÷ 428 = 0.7540

This reveals 105 lives saved and is 75.40% of what we expected (a decrease of 25%) in deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,627 ÷ 501,718 = 0.00524 (5-yr CDR)

64,105(2022 pop) X 0.00524 = 336 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

323 – 336 = -13 or 13 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

323 ÷ 336 = 0.9605 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

565,823 X 0.00667 = 3,776 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2950 – 3,776 = -826 or 826 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,950 ÷ 3,776 = 0.7802 or a decrease of 22%

in deaths from All Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.