2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 55-59 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 55-59 in Illinois

1. 2,322 of 2,322 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,189 of 2,189 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 133 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 360 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,322 of 401,840 women aged 55-59 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

2,322 ÷ 401,840 = 0.00578 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 31,367 deaths from All Causes among 5,758,460 women aged 55-59 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

31,367 ÷ 5,758,460 = 0.00545 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

401,840 X 0.00545 = 2,189 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,322 – 2,189 = 133

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,322 ÷ 2,189 = 1.0589

This reveals 133 lives lost and is 105.89% of what we expected (an increase of 6%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

17,025 ÷ 3,083,893 = 0.00552 (5-yr CDR)

401,840(2022 pop) X 0.00552 = 2,218 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,322 – 2,218 = 104 or 104 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,322 ÷ 2,218 = 1.0448 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,485,733 X 0.00545 = 18,987 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

19347 – 18,987 = 360 or 360 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

19,347 ÷ 18,987 = 1.0171 or an increase of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 55-59 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.