2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 45-49 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Illinois

1. 1,725 of 1,725 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,526 of 1,526 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 199 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 43 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,725 of 382,809 men aged 45-49 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

1,725 ÷ 382,809 = 0.00451 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 27,158 deaths from All Causes among 6,814,659 men aged 45-49 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

27,158 ÷ 6,814,659 = 0.00399 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

382,809 X 0.00399 = 1,526 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,725 – 1,526 = 199

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,725 ÷ 1,526 = 1.1279

This reveals 199 lives lost and is 112.79% of what we expected (an increase of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,088 ÷ 2,821,643 = 0.00393 (5-yr CDR)

382,809(2022 pop) X 0.00393 = 1,504 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,725 – 1,504 = 221 or 221 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,725 ÷ 1,504 = 1.1438 or an increase of 14%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,204,452 X 0.00399 = 12,770 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12813 – 12,770 = 43 or 43 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,813 ÷ 12,770 = 1.0008 or an increase of 0%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.