2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 70-74 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Illinois

1. 7,503 of 7,503 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 8% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 8,191 of 8,191 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 688 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 6,254 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 8% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 7,503 of 258,430 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

7,503 ÷ 258,430 = 0.02903 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 77,641 deaths from All Causes among 2,449,738 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

77,641 ÷ 2,449,738 = 0.03169 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

258,430 X 0.03169 = 8,191 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

7,503 – 8,191 = -688

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

7,503 ÷ 8,191 = 0.9158

This reveals 688 lives saved and is 91.58% of what we expected (a decrease of 8%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

44,536 ÷ 1,580,824 = 0.02817 (5-yr CDR)

258,430(2022 pop) X 0.02817 = 7,281 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7,503 – 7,281 = 222 or 222 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

7,503 ÷ 7,281 = 1.0302 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,839,254 X 0.03169 = 58,293 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

52039 – 58,293 = -6,254 or 6,254 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

52,039 ÷ 58,293 = 0.8924 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.