2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 40-44 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 40-44 in Kentucky

1. 493 of 493 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 60% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 308 of 308 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 185 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 751 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 60% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 493 of 141,265 women aged 40-44 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

493 ÷ 141,265 = 0.00349 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,044 deaths from All Causes among 2,317,149 women aged 40-44 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,044 ÷ 2,317,149 = 0.00218 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

141,265 X 0.00218 = 308 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

493 – 308 = 185

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

493 ÷ 308 = 1.5959

This reveals 185 lives lost and is 159.59% of what we expected (an increase of 60%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,654 ÷ 959,405 = 0.00277 (5-yr CDR)

141,265(2022 pop) X 0.00277 = 391 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

493 – 391 = 102 or 102 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

493 ÷ 391 = 1.2570 or an increase of 26%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,100,670 X 0.00218 = 2,396 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3147 – 2,396 = 751 or 751 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,147 ÷ 2,396 = 1.3075 or an increase of 31%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.