2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 35-39 | Louisiana, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 35-39 in Louisiana

1. 727 of 727 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 59% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 456 of 456 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 271 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,029 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 59% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 727 of 152,319 men aged 35-39 living in Louisiana died from All Causes.

727 ÷ 152,319 = 0.00477 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 6,524 deaths from All Causes among 2,180,436 men aged 35-39 living in Louisiana in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

6,524 ÷ 2,180,436 = 0.00299 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

152,319 X 0.00299 = 456 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

727 – 456 = 271

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

727 ÷ 456 = 1.5899

This reveals 271 lives lost and is 158.99% of what we expected (an increase of 59%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Louisiana in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,966 ÷ 1,072,182 = 0.00370 (5-yr CDR)

152,319(2022 pop) X 0.00370 = 563 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

727 – 563 = 164 or 164 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

727 ÷ 563 = 1.2868 or an increase of 29%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Louisiana in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,224,501 X 0.00299 = 3,664 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4693 – 3,664 = 1,029 or 1,029 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,693 ÷ 3,664 = 1.2766 or an increase of 28%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Louisiana in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.