2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 40-44 | Louisiana, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 40-44 in Louisiana

1. 856 of 856 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 43% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 595 of 595 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 261 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 827 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 43% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 856 of 146,685 men aged 40-44 living in Louisiana died from All Causes.

856 ÷ 146,685 = 0.00584 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 9,338 deaths from All Causes among 2,301,295 men aged 40-44 living in Louisiana in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

9,338 ÷ 2,301,295 = 0.00406 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

146,685 X 0.00406 = 595 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

856 – 595 = 261

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

856 ÷ 595 = 1.4346

This reveals 261 lives lost and is 143.46% of what we expected (an increase of 43%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Louisiana in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,434 ÷ 953,185 = 0.00465 (5-yr CDR)

146,685(2022 pop) X 0.00465 = 682 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

856 – 682 = 174 or 174 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

856 ÷ 682 = 1.2518 or an increase of 25%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Louisiana in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,099,870 X 0.00406 = 4,463 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5290 – 4,463 = 827 or 827 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,290 ÷ 4,463 = 1.1824 or an increase of 18%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Louisiana in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.