2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 15-19 | United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teen-aged girls aged 15-19 in United States

1. 3,565 of 3,565 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,528 of 3,528 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 37 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,105 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teen-aged girls aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,565 of 10,553,749 teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in United States died from All Causes.

3,565 ÷ 10,553,749 = 0.00034 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 52,038 deaths from All Causes among 155,678,162 teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in United States in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

52,038 ÷ 155,678,162 = 0.00033 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

10,553,749 X 0.00033 = 3,528 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,565 – 3,528 = 37

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,565 ÷ 3,528 = 0.9812

This reveals 37 lives saved and is 98.12% of what we expected (a decrease of 2%) in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in United States in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

22,062 ÷ 72,409,656 = 0.00030 (5-yr CDR)

10,553,749(2022 pop) X 0.00030 = 3,216 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,565 – 3,216 = 349 or 349 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,565 ÷ 3,216 = 1.0734 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in United States in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

82,963,405 X 0.00033 = 27,732 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

25627 – 27,732 = -2,105 or 2,105 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

25,627 ÷ 27,732 = 0.8973 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in United States in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.