2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 80-84 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80-84 in Alberta

1. 39 of 2,094 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 1.86% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 271% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 10 of 2,348 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 29 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 254 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 125 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,131 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Alberta’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 271% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 39 of 33,354 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Alberta died from Unknown Causes.

39 ÷ 33,354 = 0.00117 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 92 deaths from Unknown Causes among 301,259 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

92 ÷ 301,259 = 0.00031 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

33,354 X 0.00031 = 10 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

39 – 10 = 29

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

39 ÷ 10 = 3.7075

This reveals 29 lives lost and is 370.75% of what we expected (an increase of 271%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

158 ÷ 202,427 = 0.00078 (5-yr CDR)

33,354(2022 pop) X 0.00078 = 26 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

39 – 26 = 13 or 13 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

39 ÷ 26 = 1.4791 or an increase of 48%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

235,781 X 0.00031 = 72 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

197 – 72 = 125 or 125 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

197 ÷ 72 = 2.6492 or an increase of 165%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.