2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 40-44 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 40-44 in Canada

1. 1,424 of 1,424 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,319 of 1,319 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 105 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 411 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,424 of 1,295,011 women aged 40-44 living in Canada died from All Causes.

1,424 ÷ 1,295,011 = 0.00110 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 19,518 deaths from All Causes among 19,156,520 women aged 40-44 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

19,518 ÷ 19,156,520 = 0.00102 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,295,011 X 0.00102 = 1,319 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,424 – 1,319 = 105

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,424 ÷ 1,319 = 1.0687

This reveals 105 lives lost and is 106.87% of what we expected (an increase of 7%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

8,133 ÷ 8,488,339 = 0.00096 (5-yr CDR)

1,295,011(2022 pop) X 0.00096 = 1,241 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,424 – 1,241 = 183 or 183 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,424 ÷ 1,241 = 1.1358 or an increase of 14%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,783,350 X 0.00102 = 9,968 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9557 – 9,968 = -411 or 411 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,557 ÷ 9,968 = 0.9495 or a decrease of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.