2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 45-49 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 45-49 in Canada

1. 1,934 of 1,934 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,023 of 2,023 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 89 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,038 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,934 of 1,215,287 women aged 45-49 living in Canada died from All Causes.

1,934 ÷ 1,215,287 = 0.00159 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 32,454 deaths from All Causes among 19,494,117 women aged 45-49 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

32,454 ÷ 19,494,117 = 0.00166 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,215,287 X 0.00166 = 2,023 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,934 – 2,023 = -89

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,934 ÷ 2,023 = 0.9502

This reveals 89 lives saved and is 95.02% of what we expected (a decrease of 5%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

12,181 ÷ 8,487,491 = 0.00144 (5-yr CDR)

1,215,287(2022 pop) X 0.00144 = 1,744 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,934 – 1,744 = 190 or 190 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,934 ÷ 1,744 = 1.1012 or an increase of 10%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,702,778 X 0.00166 = 16,153 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

14115 – 16,153 = -2,038 or 2,038 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

14,115 ÷ 16,153 = 0.8686 or a decrease of 13%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 45-49 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.