2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 80-84 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80-84 in Quebec

1. 5,604 of 5,604 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 6,194 of 6,194 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 590 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 5,006 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 5,604 of 121,735 elderly women aged 80-84 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

5,604 ÷ 121,735 = 0.04603 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 73,025 deaths from All Causes among 1,435,143 elderly women aged 80-84 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

73,025 ÷ 1,435,143 = 0.05088 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

121,735 X 0.05088 = 6,194 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

5,604 – 6,194 = -590

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

5,604 ÷ 6,194 = 0.9045

This reveals 590 lives saved and is 90.45% of what we expected (a decrease of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

34,314 ÷ 761,140 = 0.04508 (5-yr CDR)

121,735(2022 pop) X 0.04508 = 5,488 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5,604 – 5,488 = 116 or 116 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

5,604 ÷ 5,488 = 1.0209 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

882,875 X 0.05088 = 44,924 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

39918 – 44,924 = -5,006 or 5,006 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

39,918 ÷ 44,924 = 0.8884 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.