2022 Deaths – All Causes – Pre-schooler – 1-4 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for pre-schoolers aged 1-4 in Arizona

1. 105 of 105 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.99% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 113 of 113 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 8 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 143 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many pre-schoolers aged 1-4 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 105 of 316,427 pre-schoolers aged 1-4 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

105 ÷ 316,427 = 0.00033 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,866 deaths from All Causes among 5,230,186 pre-schoolers aged 1-4 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,866 ÷ 5,230,186 = 0.00036 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

316,427 X 0.00036 = 113 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

105 – 113 = -8

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

105 ÷ 113 = 0.9047

This reveals 8 lives saved and is 90.47% of what we expected (a decrease of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among pre-schoolers aged 1-4 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

727 ÷ 2,415,401 = 0.00030 (5-yr CDR)

316,427(2022 pop) X 0.00030 = 95 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

105 – 95 = 10 or 10 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

105 ÷ 95 = 1.0670 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among pre-schoolers aged 1-4 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,731,828 X 0.00036 = 975 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

832 – 975 = -143 or 143 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

832 ÷ 975 = 0.8304 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from All Causes among pre-schoolers aged 1-4 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.