2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 70-74 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Arizona

1. 4,872 of 4,872 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,439 of 4,439 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 433 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 54 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,872 of 170,076 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

4,872 ÷ 170,076 = 0.02865 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 38,173 deaths from All Causes among 1,462,556 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

38,173 ÷ 1,462,556 = 0.02610 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

170,076 X 0.02610 = 4,439 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,872 – 4,439 = 433

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,872 ÷ 4,439 = 1.0971

This reveals 433 lives lost and is 109.71% of what we expected (an increase of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

28,157 ÷ 1,097,458 = 0.02566 (5-yr CDR)

170,076(2022 pop) X 0.02566 = 4,364 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,872 – 4,364 = 508 or 508 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,872 ÷ 4,364 = 1.1161 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,267,534 X 0.02610 = 33,083 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

33029 – 33,083 = -54 or 54 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

33,029 ÷ 33,083 = 0.9980 or a decrease of 0%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.