2022 Deaths – All Causes – Baby Boy – Under 1 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for baby boys in their first year of life in Kentucky

1. 160 of 160 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.99% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 23% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 207 of 207 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 47 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 258 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 23% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many baby boys in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 160 of 26,495 baby boys in their first year of life living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

160 ÷ 26,495 = 0.00604 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 3,324 deaths from All Causes among 425,915 baby boys in their first year of life living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,324 ÷ 425,915 = 0.00780 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

26,495 X 0.00780 = 207 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

160 – 207 = -47

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

160 ÷ 207 = 0.7728

This reveals 47 lives saved and is 77.28% of what we expected (a decrease of 23%) in deaths from All Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,285 ÷ 191,748 = 0.00670 (5-yr CDR)

26,495(2022 pop) X 0.00670 = 178 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

160 – 178 = -18 or 18 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

160 ÷ 178 = 0.8998 or a decrease of 10%

for deaths from All Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

218,243 X 0.00780 = 1,703 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1445 – 1,703 = -258 or 258 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,445 ÷ 1,703 = 0.8473 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from All Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.