2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 90+ | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 90+ in Canada

1. 72,255 of 72,255 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 69,862 of 69,862 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2,393 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 13,595 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 72,255 of 348,195 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Canada died from All Causes.

72,255 ÷ 348,195 = 0.20751 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 559,911 deaths from All Causes among 2,790,604 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

559,911 ÷ 2,790,604 = 0.20064 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

348,195 X 0.20064 = 69,862 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

72,255 – 69,862 = 2,393

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

72,255 ÷ 69,862 = 1.0342

This reveals 2,393 lives lost and is 103.42% of what we expected (an increase of 3%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

417,197 ÷ 2,158,998 = 0.19324 (5-yr CDR)

348,195(2022 pop) X 0.19324 = 67,284 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

72,255 – 67,284 = 4,971 or 4,971 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

72,255 ÷ 67,284 = 1.0738 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,507,193 X 0.20064 = 503,047 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

489452 – 503,047 = -13,595 or 13,595 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

489,452 ÷ 503,047 = 0.9729 or a decrease of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.