2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 30-34 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 30-34 in Ontario

1. 281 of 281 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 23% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 223 of 223 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 58 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 381 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 23% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 281 of 541,969 women aged 30-34 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

281 ÷ 541,969 = 0.00052 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,740 deaths from All Causes among 6,666,593 women aged 30-34 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,740 ÷ 6,666,593 = 0.00041 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

541,969 X 0.00041 = 223 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

281 – 223 = 58

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

281 ÷ 223 = 1.2315

This reveals 58 lives lost and is 123.15% of what we expected (an increase of 23%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 30-34 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,732 ÷ 3,429,404 = 0.00051 (5-yr CDR)

541,969(2022 pop) X 0.00051 = 274 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

281 – 274 = 7 or 7 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

281 ÷ 274 = 1.0067 or an increase of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 30-34 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,971,373 X 0.00041 = 1,632 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2013 – 1,632 = 381 or 381 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,013 ÷ 1,632 = 1.2040 or an increase of 20%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 30-34 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.