2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 30-34 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 30-34 in Ontario

1. 865 of 865 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 30% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 657 of 657 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 208 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,165 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 30% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 865 of 1,103,727 people aged 30-34 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

865 ÷ 1,103,727 = 0.00078 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 7,836 deaths from All Causes among 13,172,189 people aged 30-34 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

7,836 ÷ 13,172,189 = 0.00059 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,103,727 X 0.00059 = 657 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

865 – 657 = 208

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

865 ÷ 657 = 1.2956

This reveals 208 lives lost and is 129.56% of what we expected (an increase of 30%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,048 ÷ 6,877,984 = 0.00073 (5-yr CDR)

1,103,727(2022 pop) X 0.00073 = 810 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

865 – 810 = 55 or 55 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

865 ÷ 810 = 1.0535 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,981,711 X 0.00059 = 4,748 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5913 – 4,748 = 1,165 or 1,165 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,913 ÷ 4,748 = 1.2247 or an increase of 22%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.