2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 55-59 | New Brunswick, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 55-59 in New Brunswick

1. 179 of 179 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.99% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 15% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 211 of 211 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 32 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 167 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 15% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 179 of 30,334 men aged 55-59 living in New Brunswick died from All Causes.

179 ÷ 30,334 = 0.00590 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,608 deaths from All Causes among 375,690 men aged 55-59 living in New Brunswick in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,608 ÷ 375,690 = 0.00694 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

30,334 X 0.00694 = 211 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

179 – 211 = -32

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

179 ÷ 211 = 0.8488

This reveals 32 lives saved and is 84.88% of what we expected (a decrease of 15%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 55-59 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,380 ÷ 218,317 = 0.00632 (5-yr CDR)

30,334(2022 pop) X 0.00632 = 192 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

179 – 192 = -13 or 13 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

179 ÷ 192 = 0.9321 or a decrease of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 55-59 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

248,651 X 0.00694 = 1,726 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1559 – 1,726 = -167 or 167 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,559 ÷ 1,726 = 0.9019 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 55-59 living in New Brunswick in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.