2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 55-59 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 55-59 in Arizona

1. 2,281 of 2,281 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 18% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,938 of 1,938 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 343 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,736 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 18% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,281 of 210,576 men aged 55-59 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

2,281 ÷ 210,576 = 0.01083 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 22,466 deaths from All Causes among 2,440,757 men aged 55-59 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

22,466 ÷ 2,440,757 = 0.00920 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

210,576 X 0.00920 = 1,938 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,281 – 1,938 = 343

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,281 ÷ 1,938 = 1.1756

This reveals 343 lives lost and is 117.56% of what we expected (an increase of 18%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 55-59 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

15,044 ÷ 1,483,086 = 0.01014 (5-yr CDR)

210,576(2022 pop) X 0.01014 = 2,136 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,281 – 2,136 = 145 or 145 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,281 ÷ 2,136 = 1.0668 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 55-59 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,693,662 X 0.00920 = 15,589 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

17325 – 15,589 = 1,736 or 1,736 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

17,325 ÷ 15,589 = 1.1101 or an increase of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 55-59 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.