2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 65-69 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 65-69 in Arizona

1. 2,731 of 2,731 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,443 of 2,443 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 288 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 199 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,731 of 219,634 elderly women aged 65-69 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

2,731 ÷ 219,634 = 0.01243 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 22,261 deaths from All Causes among 2,001,150 elderly women aged 65-69 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

22,261 ÷ 2,001,150 = 0.01112 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

219,634 X 0.01112 = 2,443 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,731 – 2,443 = 288

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,731 ÷ 2,443 = 1.1168

This reveals 288 lives lost and is 111.68% of what we expected (an increase of 12%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

16,197 ÷ 1,464,001 = 0.01106 (5-yr CDR)

219,634(2022 pop) X 0.01106 = 2,430 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,731 – 2,430 = 301 or 301 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,731 ÷ 2,430 = 1.1229 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,683,635 X 0.01112 = 18,729 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

18928 – 18,729 = 199 or 199 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

18,928 ÷ 18,729 = 1.0097 or an increase of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.