2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – Ages 85-89 | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 85-89 in British Columbia

1. 166 of 3,723 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.46% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 87% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 88 of 3,690 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 78 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 33 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 137 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,013 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of British Columbia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 87% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 166 of 42,844 elderly women aged 85-89 living in British Columbia died from Unknown Causes.

166 ÷ 42,844 = 0.00387 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 970 deaths from Unknown Causes among 469,872 elderly women aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

970 ÷ 469,872 = 0.00206 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

42,844 X 0.00206 = 88 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

166 – 88 = 78

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

166 ÷ 88 = 1.8678

This reveals 78 lives lost and is 186.78% of what we expected (an increase of 87%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

645 ÷ 283,853 = 0.00227 (5-yr CDR)

42,844(2022 pop) X 0.00227 = 97 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

166 – 97 = 69 or 69 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

166 ÷ 97 = 1.6976 or an increase of 70%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

326,697 X 0.00206 = 674 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

811 – 674 = 137 or 137 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

811 ÷ 674 = 1.1967 or an increase of 20%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 85-89 living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.