2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 70-74 | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 70-74 in Massachusetts

1. 2,801 of 2,801 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 16% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,329 of 3,329 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 528 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 3,523 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 16% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,801 of 175,972 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts died from All Causes.

2,801 ÷ 175,972 = 0.01592 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 31,594 deaths from All Causes among 1,670,216 elderly women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

31,594 ÷ 1,670,216 = 0.01892 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

175,972 X 0.01892 = 3,329 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,801 – 3,329 = -528

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,801 ÷ 3,329 = 0.8410

This reveals 528 lives saved and is 84.10% of what we expected (a decrease of 16%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

17,471 ÷ 1,081,926 = 0.01615 (5-yr CDR)

175,972(2022 pop) X 0.01615 = 2,842 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,801 – 2,842 = -41 or 41 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,801 ÷ 2,842 = 0.9851 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,257,898 X 0.01892 = 23,795 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

20272 – 23,795 = -3,523 or 3,523 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

20,272 ÷ 23,795 = 0.8515 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.