2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Ontario

1. 1,776 of 1,776 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 8% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,918 of 1,918 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 142 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,762 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 8% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,776 of 920,106 people aged 45-49 living in Ontario died from All Causes.

1,776 ÷ 920,106 = 0.00193 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 31,370 deaths from All Causes among 15,051,542 people aged 45-49 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

31,370 ÷ 15,051,542 = 0.00208 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

920,106 X 0.00208 = 1,918 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,776 – 1,918 = -142

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,776 ÷ 1,918 = 0.9217

This reveals 142 lives saved and is 92.17% of what we expected (a decrease of 8%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

12,188 ÷ 6,625,557 = 0.00184 (5-yr CDR)

920,106(2022 pop) X 0.00184 = 1,693 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,776 – 1,693 = 83 or 83 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,776 ÷ 1,693 = 1.0436 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,545,663 X 0.00208 = 15,726 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

13964 – 15,726 = -1,762 or 1,762 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

13,964 ÷ 15,726 = 0.8837 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.