2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 75-79 | New Brunswick, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 75-79 in New Brunswick

1. 1,108 of 1,108 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 20% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,387 of 1,387 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 279 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,598 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 20% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,108 of 35,109 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in New Brunswick died from All Causes.

1,108 ÷ 35,109 = 0.03156 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 12,679 deaths from All Causes among 320,957 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in New Brunswick in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

12,679 ÷ 320,957 = 0.03950 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

35,109 X 0.03950 = 1,387 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,108 – 1,387 = -279

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,108 ÷ 1,387 = 0.7987

This reveals 279 lives saved and is 79.87% of what we expected (a decrease of 20%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,406 ÷ 195,564 = 0.03276 (5-yr CDR)

35,109(2022 pop) X 0.03276 = 1,150 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,108 – 1,150 = -42 or 42 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,108 ÷ 1,150 = 0.9631 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in New Brunswick in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

230,673 X 0.03950 = 9,112 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7514 – 9,112 = -1,598 or 1,598 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,514 ÷ 9,112 = 0.8244 or a decrease of 18%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in New Brunswick in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.