2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Massachusetts

1. 6,377 of 6,377 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 16% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 7,571 of 7,571 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,194 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 8,069 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 16% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 6,377 of 326,263 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts died from All Causes.

6,377 ÷ 326,263 = 0.01955 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 69,684 deaths from All Causes among 3,002,976 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

69,684 ÷ 3,002,976 = 0.02320 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

326,263 X 0.02320 = 7,571 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

6,377 – 7,571 = -1,194

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

6,377 ÷ 7,571 = 0.8419

This reveals 1,194 lives saved and is 84.19% of what we expected (a decrease of 16%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

39,364 ÷ 1,992,618 = 0.01975 (5-yr CDR)

326,263(2022 pop) X 0.01975 = 6,445 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6,377 – 6,445 = -68 or 68 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

6,377 ÷ 6,445 = 0.9889 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,318,881 X 0.02320 = 53,810 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

45741 – 53,810 = -8,069 or 8,069 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

45,741 ÷ 53,810 = 0.8497 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.