2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | Hawaii, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Hawaii

1. 1,362 of 1,362 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,439 of 1,439 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 77 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 775 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,362 of 76,196 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Hawaii died from All Causes.

1,362 ÷ 76,196 = 0.01787 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 12,018 deaths from All Causes among 636,260 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Hawaii in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

12,018 ÷ 636,260 = 0.01889 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

76,196 X 0.01889 = 1,439 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,362 – 1,439 = -77

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,362 ÷ 1,439 = 0.9458

This reveals 77 lives saved and is 94.58% of what we expected (a decrease of 5%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Hawaii in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

7,981 ÷ 459,485 = 0.01737 (5-yr CDR)

76,196(2022 pop) X 0.01737 = 1,323 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,362 – 1,323 = 39 or 39 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,362 ÷ 1,323 = 1.0285 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Hawaii in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

535,681 X 0.01889 = 10,118 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9343 – 10,118 = -775 or 775 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,343 ÷ 10,118 = 0.9229 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Hawaii in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.