2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 50-54 | Arizona, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 50-54 in Arizona

1. 2,461 of 2,461 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,201 of 2,201 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 260 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,246 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,461 of 433,144 people aged 50-54 living in Arizona died from All Causes.

2,461 ÷ 433,144 = 0.00568 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 28,804 deaths from All Causes among 5,668,817 people aged 50-54 living in Arizona in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

28,804 ÷ 5,668,817 = 0.00508 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

433,144 X 0.00508 = 2,201 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,461 – 2,201 = 260

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,461 ÷ 2,201 = 1.1160

This reveals 260 lives lost and is 111.60% of what we expected (an increase of 12%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

16,076 ÷ 2,969,898 = 0.00541 (5-yr CDR)

433,144(2022 pop) X 0.00541 = 2,345 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,461 – 2,345 = 116 or 116 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,461 ÷ 2,345 = 1.0477 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Arizona in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,403,042 X 0.00508 = 17,291 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

18537 – 17,291 = 1,246 or 1,246 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

18,537 ÷ 17,291 = 1.0699 or an increase of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Arizona in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.